Tuesday, July 05, 2011

Watchers for the 7-6-11 trading session


Essentially a first red day Supernovae. Finished unchanged last time, so some down side might be realistic. If it had fallen much more than 10% then less could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is less likely given the unchanged result on Tuesday. No A/H quote. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was fairly strong, but range total was lesser. A mixed bag for new shorts.


New Supernovae scan return. A 5 day move up which closed off of the highs and above the open. Volume prints getting bigger daily. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Wednesday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalping long. Down A/H almost 7%


New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (0.59) and holds. No A/H quote. Avoid shorts, keep flat on true weakness. Needs to keep above the Tuesday close or at least over 0.50 at worst on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise. Nice move on strong volume to break out above 0.50. This really picked up today & into the close.


I like this long over 27.25 and holds, which would be new 52's. At that point, it would be similar to the above play in terms of entry/exit/play management tips. See those comments for details. Low volume rise is a plus.


A past promotion by Lebed, this junker is up currently A/H but it could weaken out of gate or near that and sport an early red to green move for more upside. I am flat on real weakness here. Also possible is spiking up at or near the bell, which may yield a long scalp. News catalyst but might have legs, impressive buy volume.


Bullish Engulfing. I like this long over the close of Tuesday or better yet the high. Low volume on the rise, which is a good sign for new buyers. Keep flat on real weakness aside from a typical red to green move, etc. No A/H quote. Stops just under the low last time or the initial 30 minute one on Wednesday. More conservatively a stop placed under Tuesday's close, too. The low on that day is probably too far away to use for risk management via stops. May fail at 4.50 but if not it might mean more upside awaits. A fail there means no longs, but I am flat on that if it does. We should know early on if it will hold it and expand its gains.


B/O scan. I like it long on a continuation play over the close of today or better yet the high. Some resistance at key level of 6 so long over that and holds, too. Stops just under the close today or the 1st 30 minute low of tomorrow. Avoid all big gaps. The low of today is too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Modest volume on the rise today, a plus for new buys. In play both ways in that if it fails at 6 on a test or opens just over and falls back under, it can be shorted. Or if it panic dumps, on a fade scalp. Up almost 2% A/H over 6 so the test is likely to come from above tomorrow.

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