Wednesday, July 06, 2011

Watchers for the 7-7-11 trading session


See my previous comments. I am treating this essentially as a weakening maturing Supernovae play. An in effect 1st red day one failed and it modestly greened, more like it sported consolidating price action. Buy volume dropped off considerably, a good sign for the patient. If and only if it morning panic dumps or otherwise sports confirmed weakness cues, this is still a potential short. Such plays have to pop, eventually.


First red day Supernovae. Finished down over 9% last time, so more down side might not be realistic. If it had fallen much less than 10% then more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is more likely given the high degree of reddening on Wednesday. Up over 2% A/H. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was modest, range a mild doji. Not bad signs for new shorts.


New Supernovae scan return. A 3 day move up which closed off of the highs and above the open. Volume prints getting bigger daily. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Thursday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalping long. No A/H quote.


A continuation play that I like long above 6.82 as a trigger. Closed on hod. Also Bullish Engulfing. Medium volume on the rise, which is a neutral sign at best for new buyers. Keep flat on real weakness aside from a typical red to green move, etc. No A/H quote. Stops just under the low last time or the initial 30 minute one on Thursday. More conservatively a stop placed under Wednesday's close, too. The low on that day is probably too far away to use for risk management via stops. May fail at 7.00 but if not it might mean more upside awaits. Avoid all big gaps. Ideally, this opens flat or barely up or down and advances or r/g's early.


New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (4.37) and holds. No A/H quote change. Avoid shorts, keep flat on true weakness. Needs to keep above the Wednesday close or at least over 3.76 at worst on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise. Nice move on heavy volume to B/O of price correction peak on a Bullish daily chart.


Red floater scan return. Idea is to play for more, better down side on day 2. Sell volume on the nominal down day was light, a decent sign for new shorts. Stop above the previous session high (16.10) or another recent one at 16.27 to cap losses on head fake fade entries. More conservatively, stop above the close on Wednesday if it starts off net negative. I'm only into the shorting possibility if it surfaces, keeping flat on strength. Also a short on heavy volume dumps/confirmed weakness cues. 16 test is also key, hope for a fail.


B/O scan. I like it long on a continuation play over the close of today or better yet the high. Some natural psychological resistance at key level of 1.50 so long over that and holds, too. Stops just under the close today or the 1st 30 minute low of tomorrow. Avoid all big gaps. The low of today is too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Huge volume on the rise today, a negative for new buys. Keep flat on real weakness aside from the usual r/g. Up almost 3.5% A/H so the test is likely to come early and from below on the trigger.

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