Monday, September 05, 2011

Watchers for the 9-6-11 trading session


This has squeezed quite a few shorts, but it remains on notice for a possible fade only on confirmed weakness cues. See my previous comments over the past few sessions, they mostly remain in effect. Volume on the buy side is stabilizing, so hopefully a dump day awaits for this stubborn Supernovae play that reddened once.


First red day Supernovae. Finished down more than 12.5% last time, so more down side might not be realistic. If it had fallen much less than 10% then more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is somewhat likely given the large degree of reddening on Friday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was medium, range a bit more imposing. Mixed signals for new shorts.


Again, see my comment from last time, which mostly still apply in terms of entry/exit/trade management tips. An over extension play that is due for a distribution print. Possible gap and crap. No longs, fade faltering only. A double top stop strategy possible with stops at around 1.60+ to manage risk. More rise volume, please.


A "channeling stocks" type moment. Potential B/O and thus long above 5.41 and holds. Or a top there and a fall fail back under 5.40 and holds for a short. Either is possible, but the short might have better odds if it triggers than if the long does. You can see the price channel with a ceiling around 5.40 quite clearly.


B/O scan. I like it long on a continuation play above the close or high of Friday. Needs to stay above 4.50 on pull backs to remain viable for longs. Stops also possible just under the close on Friday or the 1st 30 minute low of Tuesday. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low on Friday is too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Big volume on the rise last time, a poor sign.


Bullish Engulfing. I like this long over the close of Friday and also the high. Low volume on the rise, which is a nice sign for new buyers. Keep flat on real weakness aside from a typical red to green move, etc. No A/H quote. Stops just under the low last time or the initial 30 minute one on Tuesday. More conservatively a stop placed under Friday's close, too. The low on that day is just too far away to use for risk control via stops. Must keep above 1.40 to remain viable as a long, 1.30 at worst. Avoid all big gaps or shorts.


Under some consolidation, I like this long above 11.66ish and into the chart gap and holds. No shorts or big gaps. Also long on spiking up at or near the bell as a scalp. Stops just under the low last time or the close. Or use the 1st 30 minute low tomorrow, etc. It might continue to move in place a few more days so be patient.

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