Wednesday, November 09, 2011

Watchers for the 11-10-11 trading session


First red day Supernovae. Finished down almost 19% last time, so more down side might not be realistic. If it had fallen much less than 10% then more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is fairly likely given the big red result of Wednesday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was medium, range moderately large, tepid signals for new shorts a best.


Another 1st red day Supernovae, this one also fell a lot, by over 28.5% today. But you always watch a busted one on the next day, for possible gravy. See my comments on the above play, for general tips on entry/exit/play management angles, roughly applicable. It had modest volume, range more imposing, mixed signals for new shorts, but better than the previously mentioned pick, arguably, save for the amount of the fall.


Although this has now had 2 red sessions, both were modest enough to keep watching for a more negative print, as if it were another initial red session Supernovae play, like the above 2 stocks. Volume small both days as well, another clue. The danger is it seems to also be consolidating a bit on the daily chart, etc. A stop just above the recent high on the rise (10.60) if a chance to fade arises seems plausible. Down A/H over 2% with entry possible below the close today or the 1st 30 minute low of Thursday, especially if it gaps down.


New Supernovae scan return. A 1 day move up 350% which closed at the highs and above the open. Volume tiny most days, now huge. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Thursday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalping long.OTC cheapie.


Red floater scan return. Idea is to play for more, better down side on day 2. Closed red on Wednesday a bit less than 3.5% on a gap down. Stop above the previous day session high (4.89) to cap losses on head fake fade entries. More conservatively, stop above the close on Wednesday if it starts off net negative. I'm only into the shorting possibility if it surfaces, keeping flat on strength. Also a short on heavy volume dumps/confirmed weakness cues. Modest sell volume on Wednesday which means it might work out well enough. Another 4.75 fail would be ideal, it ultimately held today. If it goes it might have bit more still for shorts. No A/H quote. Avoid all big gaps and longs. Can use the other recent high, 5.03 as well for stops.


B/O scan. I like it long above 5.47. Ideal to stay over that on tests aside from early noise if it triggers. Stops also possible just under the close on Wednesday or the 1st 30 minute low of Thursday. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low on Wednesday is too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Decent volume on the rise, a tepid sign for new buys. Resistance at 5.50 is clear on the daily chart, so some could fade on a fail there, but I'm only a long if it sets up. No A/H quote, avoid all big gaps. If it gets over 5.50 it could keep going.


I like this on an early red to green move and holds as a long. Also long on steady strong price action cues, like trading over the open after the noise candle in measured, consistent green sticks. No shorts, lots of momentum here. Down A/H so we might get our chance with early sham weakness and a move to green to enter on. Or spike ups at/near the bell as scalp longs. Avoid all big gaps. It could gap up a lot and crap, which might be faded, but I prefer to avoid most top fishing shorts or bottom fishing longs, except in certain special cases.

Off table, watch LSTG now Bearish Engulfing. Enter short on a fall fail under today's low. Set a stop above today's high or the initial 30 minute one of tomorrow. Or on spike downs or near the gun as a scalp short.

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