Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Watchers for the 11-17-11 trading session


New Supernovae scan return. A 7 day move up which closed under the highs and above the open. Volume increasing most days, now huge. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Thursday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalping long. Down near 3% A/H.


Another new Supernovae scan return. This has analysis similar to that for the above play. See those comments for tips on entry/exit and play management angles. A difference is this has declining buy volume, not peak. It's down about 1.5% or so A/H. Both of these were previous watchers for fades, with new scans.


Again, see my previous comments, mostly still applicable. No fake out last time, patience my friends, patience! The bounce is likely not far off, either tomorrow or Friday I expect. A long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp, or on positive price action cues after the noise candle. Let's hope A/H moves do not ruin it for us. Up almost 3% there last time I checked, so unless it just takes off at or near the gun you may have to wait for a gap fill and perk up/off to enter. Volume has fell evenly each day since the big one on the 11th.


Also see my previous comments, nothing has changed much. We are still under 6 so all of it applies. The nominal fake out today was on low sell volume near the resistance point. I am flat on fails at the trigger. It closed south by so little it's almost like today was a wash or never happened with respect to the set up, etc.


An old favorite with a news catalyst Phase 3 trial that soared up over 43.5% today. A low float can easily squeeze early eager shorts, as it has in the past on such moves. Long on early spiking up as a scalp, a short term play not to be held all day unless it just drifts up from there. You can then keep a partial position possibly. No shorts yet. Price action might be similar to today, yielding a short on top fish timing for the brave. I'm flat on immediate dumps or weakness cues, to avoid squeezes. Down a bit A/H so r/g move entry maybe.


New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (4.50) and holds. Avoid shorts/big gaps keep flat on true weakness. Nice daily chart price correction to challenge/take 4. Volume large today, a poor sign for new buys. Needs to keep above the Wednesday close or at least over 4 on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise. No A/H quote.


I like this long after early weakness with a red to green move catalyst. Down about 1.5% A/H so we may get our chance. 11as resistance is the key, obviously. Take and holds of that is a buy after the noise candle. Or as a scalp on spiking up at or near the bell. Worse thing would be a sizable gap up which could crap. Avoid shorts and all big gaps. You can scale in, with 1/2 on the 11 cross/holds and the other 1/2 over 11.50ish, etc.

Off table, watch potential bouncer long play RMBS which may need more seasoning. It might make my official list next time or so once it stops diving. Antitrust loss news may cause a lot of selling, but even in cases like that, idiots buy it eventually for a dead cat bounce which can be scalped, etc.

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