Monday, November 21, 2011

Watchers for the 11-21-11 trading session


First red day Supernovae. Finished down over 9% last time, so more down side might be realistic. If it had fallen much more than 10% then less could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is somewhat likely given the clear red result of Friday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was favorably small, range more considerable. Arguably mixed signals for new shorts. Down less than 1% A/H.


Another 1st red day Supernovae. See my comments for the above play, which this roughly resembles for entry/exit/ trade management ideas. This one fell less, by a bit over 5.5% which is a plus comparatively. Selling volume seems higher than on the other play, which is less favorable for new shorts. Down about 1.5% A/H.


Once again, see my comments from last time and the past few days, little has changed. Even smaller selling volume. This stock is screaming "bounce session" which should arrive any day now. A play like this proves how much patience is a virtue for traders, even day ones. The perfectly descending volume is ideal. The key is timing a day when it spikes up at or near the bell to scalp buy or trades over the open after the noise candle.


Yet again, see my comments from last time, which apply identically. This is still in play after a gap up and fill ended on Friday at the magic 3.50 trigger. A short on confirmed weakness cues/trading under the aforementioned level after the noise candle. Or the same on panic dumps at any time (scalp) or on a new test/fail of the trigger ideally. I'd prefer to have that occur first before entering, but it may not be necessary.


New Supernovae scan return. A 2 day move up which closed under the highs and above the open. Volume small most days, now huge. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Monday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalping long. No A/H quote change.


New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (4.13) and holds. Avoid shorts/big gaps keep flat on true weakness. Nice daily chart correction to challenge/take 4+. Volume large today, a poor sign for new buys. Needs to keep above the Friday close or at least over 3.80 on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise. No A/H quote.


Bullish Engulfing. I like this long over the high of Friday. Modest volume on the rise, which is a fair sign for new buyers. Keep flat on real weakness aside from a typical red to green move, etc. Stops just under the low last time or the initial 30 minute one on Monday. More conservatively a stop placed under Friday's close, too. The low on that day is arguably not too far away to use for risk management via stops. Ideally stays above 3.20 on pull backs to remain viable as a long. No big gaps or shorts. No A/H quote. Support at 3.06-3ish.

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