Wednesday, November 02, 2011

Watchers for the 11-3-11 trading session


New Supernovae scan return. A 1 day move up which closed off of the highs and above the open. Volume flat most days, now huge. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Thursday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalping long. Pinkie cheapie here.


First red day Supernovae. Finished down just about 2.5% last time, so more down side might be realistic. If it had fallen much more than 10% then less could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is less likely given the weak red result of Wednesday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was tiny, range very modest. Not bad signs for new shorts going forward if it keeps tumbling.


This could have a 2nd day of more restrained selling in it tomorrow, but after the big dump and volume today it might not. Fade entry only on confirmed weakness cues or more panic dumps at any time. If it breaks under 2 again it might have a bit more still. It could as easily bounce next time, but I'm flat on more greening price action hues. I had hoped for even more redness on a dumpish session like today, but it might drip some gravy.


New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (18.80) and holds. Avoid shorts/big gaps keep flat on true weakness. Nice daily chart price correction move above 16-16.50. Volume large today, a poor sign for new buys. Needs to keep above the Wednesday close or at least over 18 on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise. No A/H quote.


B/O scan. I like it long above 7.93-8. Ideal to stay over that on tests aside from early noise if it triggers. Stops also possible just under the close on Wednesday or the 1st 30 minute low of Thursday. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low on Wednesday is not too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Medium volume on the rise, a neutral sign for new buys. Resistance at 8 is clear on the daily chart, so some could fade on a fail there, but I'm only a long if it sets up. No A/H quote.


Mixed and downside guidance but coming in ahead of views, this has a potential fall fail back under 3 to fade to work with. Keep flat on more greening, or typical nominal weak noise candle red to green moves, etc. Place a stop just over 3.11 and honor it. It cleared daily chart resistance @ 3 so a drop under and holds would be telling. Avoid all big gaps. No A/H quote. Only enter on the above trigger after the noise candle.


Red floater scan return. Idea is to play for more, better down side on day 2. Closed up on Wednesday a bit more than 0.5% but below the open via a gapper. Stop above the previous day session high (6.06) to cap losses on head fake fade entries. More conservatively, stop above the close on Wednesday if it starts off net negative. I'm only into the shorting possibility if it surfaces, keeping flat on strength. Also a short on heavy volume dumps/confirmed weakness cues. Medium sell volume on Wednesday which means it might work out well enough. 5.80 fail would be ideal, it held today. If it goes it might have bit more still for shorts. Tweezer Tops on the 2 day daily means the stop level on fades should inspire more confidence. No A/H quote change.

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