Monday, November 07, 2011

Watchers for the 11-8-11 trading session


New Supernovae scan return. A 5 day move up which closed off of the highs and above the open. Volume increasing some days, now peak. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Tuesday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalping long. A stock with history!


First red day Supernovae. Finished down 25% last time, so more down side might not be realistic. If it had fallen much less than 10% then more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is sadly fairly likely given the big red result of Monday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was imposing, range more so. Not very unfavorable signals for new shorts, but it's a watcher.


Supernovae, still maturing. A near daily doji print. Not a lot of distance between open and close, except intra-day, but quite green due to a gap up. See my previous comments, mostly still in force. Buy volume declining but still strong, so it may not be done yet. Honor stops & set them not much higher than today's one.


Red floater scan return. Idea is to play for more, better down side on day 2. Closed up on Monday a bit more than 2.5% but below the open via a gapper. Stop above the previous day session high (5.42) to cap losses on head fake fade entries. More conservatively, stop above the close on Monday if it starts off net negative. I'm only into the shorting possibility if it surfaces, keeping flat on strength. Also a short on heavy volume dumps/confirmed weakness cues. Strong buy volume on Monday which means it might work out well enough. 5 fail would be ideal, it ultimately held today. If it goes it might have bit more still for shorts. Down
over 2% A/H.


B/O scan. I like it long above 3.00-3.08. Ideal to stay over that on tests aside from early noise if it triggers. Stops also possible just under the close on Monday or the 1st 30 minute low of Tuesday. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low on Monday is too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Strong volume on the rise, a poor sign for new buys. Resistance at 3 is clear on the daily chart, so some could fade on a fail there, but I'm only a long if it sets up. Up over 4% A/H to 3.06 so a test and hold of 3 as a floor to take 1/2 of the position and the other above 3.08 and holds might suffice. If the A/H gap fills and nominally weakens an early red to green buy could arise. Hedge Fund buy-in catalyst.


Bullish Engulfing. I like this long over the high of Monday. Medium volume on the rise, which is a neutral sign for new buyers. Keep flat on real weakness aside from a typical red to green move, etc. Stops just under the low last time or the initial 30 minute one on Tuesday. More conservatively a stop placed under Monday's close, too. The low on that day is not too far away to use for risk management via stops. Ideally keeps above 1.85 on pull backs to remain in the play long. No big gaps or shorts. No A/H quote.


I like this long above 20.05 and holds or short on the 20 fail, where clear resistance exists on the daily chart. Avoid all big gaps. No A/H quote change. Or long on spike ups at or near the gun or the reverse on spike downs, both as scalps. Close feedback points like 20ish here are good to have on trade set-ups as a rule.

Off record, keep watching the demolished RAYS for a washout and bounce long entry chance. Also view TSTC for over extension and a fall fail fade back under 9.

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