Sunday, February 05, 2012

Watchers for the 2-6-12 trading session

CDCAQ

Again, see my previous comments on the squeeze happy maturing Supernovae. Buy volume is lessening a bit, but it still could have more upside before the dump. Be careful and willing to exit on reversals. A Pinkie, too.


DWCH

See also my previous comments for this, still in effect on the potential over extension fade play. Buy volume has really fell, so it might reverse soon. Still, it ran to 9.50+ as suspected. New area to watch is 10 for fails, or just back under the original one listed above. No longs. Up A/H almost 2.5% so hopefully it will gap/crap.


GLUU

Also see my previous comments. Still might get a 4 failure to fade into on over extending. No A/H quote change. Avoid longs. Buy volume diminishing, but not massively, so it may have room to run. Honor stops.


AFFY

Once more, review my comments from last time. This has had modest, steadily increasing volume on the buy side, do not assume it's done. Looking for a fall fail of some kind at 10.50 or back under 10 as previously. Down a tad A/H hope for a spike up and dump or panic from at or near the gun to fade. No longs.


FCPG

New Supernovae scan return. A 5 day move up which closed under the highs and above the open. Volume modestly increasing most days, now huge. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Monday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues anytime or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalping long. An OTC cheapie, so be careful. A 0.30 fail of some kind may prove pivotal.


DEAC

Another new Supernovae, see my comments for the above stock for general hints on entry/exit/trade management, etc. A 2 day rise, volume now substantial. Possible fall fail back under 2 to fade. Another OTC stock, so be cautious. The trick on most of these plays is to play small and scale in, and to be willing to cut and run if you get a clear entry that reverses course. Squeezes are common, especially on new scans.


THLD

Another new Supernovae scan return, this one with a 1 day move up on huge volume. It might offer a fall fail back under 3 on Monday for a fade. However, it may also keep going. Since it's a brand new scan, assume the worst, but prepare for the best. Squeezes are the bane of early shorts taking these kinds of plays. If this sets up and fakes you out, exit pronto. Often it takes a few days of idiocy before the real fall day. No longs.


Off table, I'm watching CLDX a bearish engulfing play for a fall fail below 5 to short into. Stops above the high last time. Fell on big volume, not the best sign for shorts. A B/O play NVTL might work on a pull back/perk off 3.20 or above 3.29/holds. Modest volume is a decent sign for longs. No shorts or big gaps.

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