Wednesday, July 18, 2012

Watchers for the 7-19-12 trading session


First red day Supernovae. Finished down over 17% last time, so more down side might not be realistic. If it had fallen much less than 10% then more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This seems reasonably likely given the fair degree of reddening today. Down A/H over 2%. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was sizable, range equally so. Weak short signals at best.


Another 1st red session Supernovae, see my comments for the above stock, which resemble the approach for this one. Differences are it fell a tad less but on much more restrained volume and range, a plus here. Down 10.5% A/H which does not help matters for those looking for more downside gravy.


New Supernovae scan return. A 1 day move up which closed at the highs and above the open. Volume low most days, now huge. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Thursday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues anytime or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalping long. A 0.30 fail of some kind may prove pivotal.


New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (over 8.37) and holds. Avoid shorts/big gaps keep flat on true weakness. Volume strong Wednesday, a poor sign for new buys. Needs to keep above the Wednesday close or at least over 7.50 on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise. No A/H quote. Over/under 8 is clearly key.


Red floater scan return. Idea is to play for more down side on day 2. Ended red 1% on Wednesday via a gap down that closed below the open after several mostly up days. Stops just above 17.33 to cap losses on head fake fade entries. I'm only into the shorting possibility if it surfaces, keeping flat on strength. Also a short on heavy volume dumps/confirmed weakness cues. Low sell volume on Wednesday which means it may have fair chances for shorts. Avoid all longs and big gaps, especially large gap downs. No A/H quote shift.


B/O scan. I like it long back over 1.60 and holds. Ideal to stay over that on tests aside from early noise if it triggers. Stops also possible just under the close on Wednesday or the 1st 30 minute low of Thursday. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low on Wednesday is too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Modest volume on the rise, a decent sign for new buys. No A/H quote. Exiting below 1.50 on fails after trigger entering might be prudent. Early r/g buy?


Bullish Engulfing. I like this long over the high (9.41) of Wednesday. Medium volume on the rise, which is a neutral sign for new buyers. Keep flat on real weakness aside from a typical red to green move, etc. Stops just under the low last time or the initial 30 minute one on Thursday. More conservatively a stop placed under Wednesday's close, too. The low on that day is debatably too far away to use for risk management via stops. Ideally stays above 9 on pull backs to remain viable as a long if it triggers. No big gaps/shorts. Up A/H a bit more than 0.5%. Some support on the daily chart @ 8.50ish. You must exit under this on a buy.

Off table, keep an eye on PPHM for a possible fade, it's teetering now and could have a fall day soon. Set a stop no higher the today's high and honor it, it might need to be top fished. Also watch VTUS a low float mover for more upside over 4/holds and a fade on a fail there or on panic dumps. Honor usual stop settings.

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