Thursday, July 19, 2012

Watchers for the 7-20-12 trading session


First red day Supernovae. Finished down over 15.5% last time, so more down side might not be realistic. If it had fallen much less than 10% then more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This seems reasonably likely given the fair degree of reddening today. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was small, range more expansive. Mixed short signals in terms of reliability.


New "Supernovae" scan return. A 1 day move up which closed above the highs and over the open. Volume low most days, now too.This can be crudely analyzed like a typical new Supernovae as was the case for 7-18 (STEM) but it's a just stock split inspired move actually. Still, some retreat is likely, if only modestly.


New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (over 5.18) and holds. Avoid shorts/big gaps keep flat on true weakness. Volume strong Thursday, a poor sign for new buys. Needs to keep above the Thursday close or at least over 5 on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise. No A/H quote shift.


Red floater scan return. Idea is to play for more down side on day 2. Ended red almost 1% on Thursday via a gap up that closed below the open after 4 up days. Stops just above 10.83 to cap losses on head fake fade entries. I'm only into the shorting possibility if it surfaces, keeping flat on strength. Also a short on heavy volume dumps/confirmed weakness cues. Medium sell volume on Thursday which means it may have neutral chances for shorts. Avoid all longs and big gaps, especially large gap downs. No A/H quote.


B/O scan. I like it long back over 2.61 and holds. Ideal to stay over that on tests aside from early noise if it triggers. Stops also possible just under the close on Thursday or the 1st 30 minute low of Friday. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low on Thursday is arguably too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Moderate volume on the rise, a decent sign for new buys. No A/H quote. Exiting below 2.50 on fails after trigger entering might be prudent. Early r/g buy?


Bullish Engulfing. I like this long over the high (20.43) of Thursday. Moderate volume on the rise, which is a fair sign for new buyers. Keep flat on real weakness aside from a typical red to green move, etc. Stops just under the low last time or the initial 30 minute one on Friday. More conservatively a stop placed under Thursday's close, too. The low on that day is not too far away to use for risk management via stops. Ideally stays above 20 on pull backs to remain viable as a long if it triggers. No big gaps/shorts. No A/H quote.


In play both ways. 1st, as a fall fail fade back under 1.20. If it gaps over, let it test/fail before shorting. A test from below that fails there works, too. Also a short on panic dumps at or near the bell or in the afternoon. No huge gaps. Long on more upside and on a test/hold/perk off 1.26. If this maintains this it could have more. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun for a scalp. An over/under live price action call. Possible red to green long after a weak open and 1.26 test that prevails. Low float, shorts honor stops.  

Off record, keep watching AFFY for a down session to fade. It may be consolidating now, but maybe not. Set stop above today's high or the 30 minute high tomorrow, and wait for it to crack with our usual methods.

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