Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Watchers for the 10-15-14 trading session


Again, see my previous comments on this recent initial red session Supernovae. It gapped up, ending above the open but north by around 3% today. Potential fade on weakness.


First red day Supernovae. Finished red over 25% last time, so more down side might not be in the cards. If it had fallen much less than 10% then more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is very likely given the big red result of Tuesday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the noise candle. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was large, range as well.  Poor short signals at best on those counts, but watch it.


New Supernovae scan return. A 2 day move up which closed above the highs and above the open. Volume peak Tuesday. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Wednesday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues anytime or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, no scalps.


New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks often go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (over 9.76) and holds. Avoid shorts, keep flat on true weakness. Nice move above 9.50. Needs to keep above the Tuesday close, or at least above 9.50 on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise. Early sustained prices over 9.74 are ideal for aggressive entry.


In play both ways. As a long on continuation of momentum above 2.24/holds. Or as a scalp up at or near the gun for a scalp buy. Or, as a short on a fall fail of 2 and holds. Or as a scalp sell on a pop down at or near the bell. Avoid all big gaps. Be careful maintaining a short on a reversal back over 2. The fade is more likely given the price action on Tuesday, but keep an open mind.


B/O scan. I like it long back over 8.02 and holds. Ideal to stay over that on tests aside from early noise if it triggers. Stops also possible just under the close on Tuesday or the 1st 30 minute low on Wednesday. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low on Tuesday is too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Modest volume on the rise, a fair sign for new buys. Exiting below 7.80 on fails after trigger entry is possibly advisable. Early r/g buy?


Bullish Engulfing. I like this long over 3.14/holds. Low volume on the rise, which is a good sign for new buyers. Keep flat on real weakness aside from a typical red to green move, etc. Stops just under the low last time or the initial 30 minute one on Wednesday. More conservatively a stop placed under Tuesday's close, too. The low on that day is too far away to use as a stop. Ideally stays above 2.90 on pull backs to remain viable as a long if it triggers. No big gaps/shorts. 

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