Monday, December 22, 2014

Watchers for the 12-23-14 trading session


First red day Supernovae. Finished red over 3.5% last time, so more down side might be in the cards. If it had fallen much more than 10% then less could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is average likely given the modest red result of Monday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the noise candle. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was low, range also limited. Mixed short signals at best on those counts, but watch it.


Another initial red session Supernovae with modest downside. See my above comments for general approaches. Ended down less than 1% today on low volume. Potential fade on weakness.


New Supernovae scan return. A 5 day move up which closed below the highs and above the open. Volume large Monday. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Tuesday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues anytime or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, no scalps.


Also making a  "new" Supernovae scan, this recent play might have some more red  in it. It closed down less than 2% today but has a staggered several day move up. Potential fade. Low volume fall today which is another plus. See my comments for the 1st 2 stocks, which this play resembles.


New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks often go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (over 18.83) and holds. Avoid shorts, keep flat on true weakness. Nice move above 17. Needs to keep above the Monday close, or at least above 18 on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise. Early sustained prices over 18.83 are ideal for aggressive entry.


In play both ways. As a long on continuation of momentum above 1.73/holds. Or as a scalp up at or near the gun for a scalp buy. Or, as a short on a fall fail of 1.50/and holds. Or as a scalp sell on a pop down at or near the bell. Avoid all big gaps. Be careful maintaining a short on a reversal back over 1.50. The fade is more likely given the price action on Monday, but keep an open mind.


Bullish Engulfing. I like this long over 6.58/holds. Low volume on the rise, which is a good sign for new buyers. Keep flat on real weakness aside from a typical red to green move, etc. Stops just under the low last time or the initial 30 minute one on Tuesday. More conservatively a stop placed under Monday's close, too. The low on that day is too far away to use for stops. Ideally stays above 6.25 on pull backs to remain viable as a long if it triggers. No big gaps or shorts.

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