Thursday, September 16, 2010

Trade review 9-16-10

I got some of them right...



Textbook pump that got dumped, dropping from the gun steadily into the close, en route to a red finish of over 30% from a basically flat open. I ACED this call.


Another perfect play. This opened at the hod and tanked all day, en route to a down close of nearly 31.5% from a flat open.


Nice long that opened at the lod and never looked back, reaching 2 as suspected. It did pull back but held 2, so a long as in the cards. The price action also suggested it on a 2 test, which it successfully attempted. The gap up that never went green to red prohibited any obvious short, sealing the deal was the 2 hold. Up nearly 7.5% on the day.


Another nice play. Opening near the hod, although gapping down. Great tanking action even though it finished rather off its lows. Red finish by almost 27%


More 52's as suspected, with a more modest greening into the close as predicted, up near 1.5% This was a boring red to green that barely qualifies as a win, but my call and particulars were essentially correct, so it is. We took out the previous closing price area at 20 and expanded upon that meekly.


As I feared, this was a beast with legs. Despite the 10 cent gap down open, (this was not prohibitive given the share price for this one) this proved to the lod. It stayed nominally green for hours then zoomed into the close for an obvious long play. Up nearly 8.5% by the time it was over. We never saw the spiking madness to top fish, which is good as do not suggest shorting like this, except rarely. This play seemed in that mold, but the live price action today altered all of those earlier assumptions, in my view for the better.



I would like to claim this as a win, but honesty prevents that. I do think it will eventualluy go lower, but the red finish of over 5% was misleading here because it was mostly from the gap down. It closed higher than it opened. Worse, it sported not 1 but 2 fake out breakdowns early that could have whipsawed short for losses. True, we never took out the previous session high, so liberal stops might still be in this play, but still!


Since I saw this mostly as a short (and still do!) and since it finished green by almost 12% a loss is called for. True, the fairly imposing gap up never called for a short, but my directionality was wrong. I said only short this on verified weakness cues, which never came, but I was wrong enough here in my timing/comments to lose.



Gap up open of 10 cents did not help any hoped for fade entry. It was possible to have made money on this short, but difficult. An unchanged close suggests a push result. A play like this is simply never acted upon.

Daily record: W-6 L-2-P-1


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