Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Watchers for the 9-16-10 trading session


Supenovae still in play. It nearly daily doji printed, and might still yield some distribution action for patient shorts who either boxed to drop and still are all in, or who lost and want revenge. Only short clear weakness cues, which, while nothing is a sure thing in the stock market, are often reliably indicators of a stock's daily fortune. Avoid longs at this point.


A pump and dump nearing maturity, look for shares to short panic dumps. Seems to be on the verge of running out of gas, but we will see. Only short weakness, as always. This all depends on the actions of the front loader longs, etc. so tread carefully here. Too late for a safe long, which was possible the past few days.


Up 256% on no obvious news, that gets my interest. Huge volume, too. Look for shares, if this weakness with any of the usual cues, dive in for the fade. Avoid longs.


Ok, I will risk it again. This is really getting top heavy. Volume is subsided a bit, although it still might not yet be done. Look for shares, short on the usual verified weakness cues only. Avoid longs. Patient stalking, here.


In play both ways. Might continue to try for 2 bucks, but this is a natural and technical profit taking fade entry point on failure there. Taking and holding 2 with volume and accelerating prices is a long, also. I see this as over extending, though, so most likely is a try for 2 and a fail, with a profit taking short entry possible.


Another in play both ways situation. Long early on spiking if it occurs, another possible 12 test, then shorting any profit taking tops. A risky move that I seldom recommend, preferring to short weakness cues only and not top fishing tries. Here, some profiteering is bound to occur, given the news catalyst inspired price action. By day 3, it usually starts to give way to more rational thinking. Be unbiased, though, and use judgment. Live price action situation, here. It certainly looks like a beast with legs, currently. Never let your impressions of what "should" happen influence you over the price behavior of a stock, which is always the final arbiter.


I agree with Tim Sykes that this is not going to turn out to be the next Microsoft, and that it probably sees more down side in the next few days, weeks and months. A return to before where it was before the recent run is quite possible. However, this was day 2 of of the sell off, so short only on clear weakness cues. Hesitate to sell short any significant gap downs, though. I would not have bought this even during the run up.


Day 3 of the reddening might come tomorrow, but I want to see if it actually continues to weaken with the usual cues first. If it looks strong early, just stay flat. I think the odds here of it greening are equally matched, even if it does not have a huge up day like on the 10th or 13th. Another live price action call.


FDA approval winner will try to sell itself on this latest news. Up after hours, possible latte arriving longs may give this more initial greening for scalping upwards out of the gate, at least. New 52's as this one sported usually go a bit higher still, at least short term. Obviously, profits will be taken but I see this more as long scalp "plus" with the option of holding a few more hours. Decent odds of a green finish tomorrow, but obviously not as up as today, just gravy making. I would be flat here rather than short if it seems to just move sideways, etc.

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