Sunday, February 13, 2011

Watchers for the 2-14-11 trading session


This stubborn consolidating long maturing Supernovae has finally had a real red day of sorts. Finished red by less than 2.5% last time, so at least a bit more down side might arrive. This one has had no serious distribution day, so I hope the fall is going to be worthy. Conditional entry in that a flat or barely green or red up that morning panics or displays confirmed weakness cues is a short. Stay flat on greening/strength, particularly early on. Usually fade weakness only. Shorts should be avoided on big gaps up or down, especially the latter.


New Supernovae scan return. Earnings catalyst, but eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Down after hours, it might yield a rapid red to green on Monday and spike up for a long scalp. A fade on confirmed weakness cues or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box to drop if you do not want to buy and prefer to wait for the distribution print. A long entry if it cues is more likely to be a scalp, a short entry if it cues is more likely to be held somewhat longer.


First red day Supernovae. Finished red by more than  36.5% last time, so more down side might not be very realistic. If it had fallen less than 10%  more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is more likely given the extreme degree of redness on Friday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level.

KV.A and KV.B

Equaling or surpassing new highs on ever lessening volume, this Supernovae has matured and experienced a red day on the 8th but should have another day of reddening in it soon, if not Monday. Keep flat on early strength/greening, or consistent moves above the opening price level. Ideally this opens flat or barely up or down and moves south on volume to fade into. Also a short on morning panic dumps. Avoid entries on big gaps up or down, particularly down ones. Only short confirmed weakness cues. Consolidating price action on this has been annoying, but patience is required to short effectively, stalking and waiting for a fall day.


Over extension fade play possible soon. Biggest volume yet, so it may not be ripe yet. Stay flat on early strength/greening or spiking up at or near the bell. May hit 6.50 on a test. If it takes and hold that on volume with acceleration, keep flat. Short fails at that level and heavy volume dumping at or near the bell, which should yield at least a scalp fade. Also a short on a flat or nominally up or down debut that heads south soon after, with confirmed weakness cues. Avoid large gaps, especially down.


New 52s. Earnings driven, with no run up. Short term, both if these things tend to go even higher. Up after hours. Could spike up at or near the gun for a long scalp. Also possible is an early red to green if it dives soon after the open, then reverses hard. Long on that. Long as well on consistent trading above the opening price level. Avoid shorts, staying flat on consistently weak price action. The risk of a squeeze on a spirited reversal in such cases is too high. Avoid top fish fades, too.


New 52's. Short term, these tend to power higher. This is a nice feedback type play, since new support is found at 3.50 to reference. This had been resistance until Friday. A possible early red to green long if it opens down within reason or sells off initially and reverses. Possible pull back entry long if it tests 3.50 on distribution and holds and perks up off of that. Also a long scalp on spiking up at or near the bell. Long also on consistent trading above the opening price level. Remain flat on consistently weak price action. A stop can be placed a few cents under 3.50 as that would represent a failure for longs to hold on to the floor.

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Anonymous said...

your explanations for entries are much
appreciated, you ought to write a book!

Big T said...

I am working on that, in fact, or something just like it.

Big T

Thanks for the compliment, good luck and happy trading, kill it man! :)