Monday, March 07, 2011

Watchers for the 3-8-11 trading session


See my mostly applicable comments for last time on this rapidly maturing Supernovae. The volume faded a bit, but not much, so it might not be over. Seems to gap up and go daily, denying shorts any angle to safely enter. Once it cracks it is going to be a dandy one, though. This middle east oil/energy thing makes it scary to short, and involves more risk of squeezes, but if you only fade weakness and bail if proven wrong, it's a play.


New Supernovae scan return. Stock price has about doubled in 5 sessions, and that rise was a bit more gradual than on a typical one. It sported a big red day in between. Biggest volume yet on the rise, so it might not be done yet. A fade entry on confirmed weakness cues. Avoid longs, keeping flat on consistently strong price action. Box and drop if need be. Easiest is a flat or nominally up or down open and immediate reddening to short into. This might be an EOD exit with even selling. Heavy volume sell dumps are short scalps. Avoid all large gaps. Do not try to top fish this. Only fade clear weakness as this involves a hot sector.


New 52's. Short term, these usually go higher. Big earnings beat and on analyst expectations with raised guidance led to the rise. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Currently, it is up not down after hours, so it might just gap fill and resume upward mobility. Long on that. Avoid shorts, keeping flat on any signs of enduring weakness. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. See how it holds 9, which is around the initial break out zone. A pullback entry on a test and hold of at least 18.85 will provide a possible long on an up hook within the context of an ongoing break out. One enters on a perk up off that new support level with a stop a bit below and swings it. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs and holds.


See my comments for last time, which still apply in the main. A 1st red day on this Supernovae led to today, which featured an unchanged finish relative to the previous session close. It weakened today but rebounded. So, it's in play on a do over for Tuesday for some possible down side gravy if it reddens. Some short term resistance near 5.10 suggests stop placement a bit over that to limit squeezes.


Big run up into earnings, which come out tomorrow, and now up some more after hours. I can hardly believe some early short on profit taking is not going to arise here. Sell on the news, etc. It's up quite a bit. A fade on confirmed weakness cues or morning panic style dumping, whenever it occurs in the session. A rare case of top fishing fade here if it continues to spike up parabolic at or near the gun and runs out of gas, when it might be sold off hard in response. On the aforementioned spike up, it might be long scalped, but I want the short. An EOD exit on a long is less inviting, though if it holds up and stays over 2 it is a possibility. It will be easier to enter a fade if it cracks back under 2 and draws more sellers to accelerate the profit booking anxiety.


Another stock bordering on going parabolic is this one. Up over a buck after hours, if it cracks back under 1 on volume with acceleration, it is a short. Fade also on typical confirmed weakness cues, or morning panic style dumps, whenever they occur in the session. A Scamex stock with lame internals/fundies from a red hot sector, and the risk of squeezing is great so be careful. Keep flat on more upside/greening, even spiking up from or near the gun. Such moves are dying to to be top fish faded, which is usually a bad idea but might pan out here if it gaps and explodes. Any hard selling on volume is then a possible short. Be intolerant of squeezes.


See my comments previously on this stubborn decaying Supernovae. They are mostly applicable. Now a ceiling between 7.80 and 7.90 suggest stop placement areas on squeezes. Obviously over 8 is an exit loss for shorts. Having weakened but falling less than 3% today, I am looking for more downside gravy from a possible early green to red and holds or morning panic style dumps whenever they arise. Also a short on typical confirmed weakness cues. Stay flat on consistently strong price action, and keep note of the resistance levels above for guidance on bail points either short or long. The risk of squeezing is high with this hot sector.

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