Thursday, March 10, 2011

Watchers for the 3-11-11 trading session


New Supernovae scan return. Strongest volume yet on the rise, and it closed on the highs. If it gaps up, it might yield a rapid green to red or gap and crap entry on Friday. I am in cash on any strength/greening. More of a gradual rise over 5 days. Conditional entry. A fade on confirmed weakness cues or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box to drop if you do not want to buy and prefer to wait for the distribution print, avoid top fish timing fades.


First red day Supernovae. Finished red by nearly 22% last time, so more down side might not be realistic. If it had fallen much less than 10% then more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is more likely given the heavy degree of reddening on Thursday. Down a lot after hours, which is not a good sign. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Volume declining, which is not bad news for shorts.


This Supernovae play had its first red day on Wednesday. It really greened today, but that was no surprise given the degree of redness on that session. It might resume downward action Friday. Analysis is similar to what I described in my list for Thursday. See that for details on entry angles. Do not try to top time it, wait for clear weakness to fade into. I have learned to follow plays like this several days after initial action, for gravy.


New 52's. Short term, these usually go higher. Q4 results driven. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Down just a bit after hours. Avoid shorts, keeping flat on any signs of enduring weakness. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs and holds.


Another earnings related new 52's. See my analysis for SPPI which this play resembles. No after hours quote on this, but hopefully it gaps down modestly and quickly greens. Both of my longs in this list must keep in mind the broader market, which is increasingly Bearish. On the other hand, both of them were up today on a session that saw a Dow down by over 228 points. If the Bear returns, longs will be a lot more tricky to time.


Beginning to over extend, this one is now being monitored for an entry on confirmed weakness cues or good morning panicky dumping whenever it occurs in the session or a parabolic move and another gap or 2 on the daily to top fish if it also spikes up early or from from bell. It might not be done yet. The worse thing that could happen is it gaps way down and ruins any safe fade entry. Keep flat on consistently strong price action.


I am watching this for a possible bounce on a spiking up at or near the bell. This is a long scalp entry. Also, it seems to be near some technical support after several red session prints. This floor is at about 7ish. Any test and fail there and falling under could mean more down side, which is a fade entry if it happens on heavy volume. This is a scalp but it might be a longer hold depending on whether it keeps tanking. Alternatively, it might bounce at 7 and hold, perking up off it for a long entry on the test. If we open flat or nominally up and immediately begin to fall to that level instead of spiking, it could give us our test for either direction in entry.

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