Sunday, April 10, 2011

Watchers for the 4-11-11 trading session


First red day Supernovae. Finished down over 23% last time, so more down side might not be as realistic. If it had fallen much less than 10% then more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is more likely given the high degree of reddening on Friday. No after hours quote. Wait for a fail. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Sell volume was big. That's not a great sign for shorts.


In play both ways, but it seems to have found its bearings for the longs. It can be shorted on clear weakness cues or morning panic style dumps, but not otherwise. A long on gap up and go price action, or quotes above the opening level after 5 minutes of trading. Also a long on an early red to green move, especially if opening slightly negative. This was an incher that seemed like it was toast on 4/6/11 but it has since closed a cent below the open on that fall day. If it can power over 1.68 and especially over 1.72 and hold, longs might thrive. I still say watch it continuously if going long, but as long as the direction holds you must respect it.


Still no news that's obvious to explain the continued greening, and my previous comments still apply almost entirely, see them for details on how to proceed here. A short gets even better if it can just begin to sell off. Avoid longs, given the lack of detail on why it is advancing. Shorting successfully is a stalk and wait game.


Brand new Supernovae scan return. Low volume riser initially, and it closed off of the highs. Volume has picked up a lot. This probably sneaked up on a lot of people, with its moderately gradual rise. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Monday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalping long, this is not the 1st day it has gone well up. No after hours quote.


Well, up almost 281% on Friday on no obvious news or promotion. All of it came at the end, which is suspicious. I cannot go long here without knowing something, though of course it could print Monday up if less spectacularly. A short on confirmed weakness cues or morning panic style dumping whenever it occurs. In a situation like this, it's usually best to put it on watch and wait for the chance to fade once it dives off.


New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs and holds. Avoid shorts. Keep flat on enduring weakness. No after hours quote. The key here is 3 on a test or rather retest. It busted through 3 briefly, hitting over this key psychological level, but closed back under. I would prefer it to retake and hold the key level to enter the long, or a pull back entry on a 2.75 test that solidly holds and retools back upwards. If it cannot hold the lower test level, I would stay out entirely.


At some point this is going to dump hard and when it does it will be quick, which is a possible fade play. But as of now the volume is still decent and the direction is still upward, so it's a long on more inching. Like ALZM or LEXG and others, going long early and often is possible with caution. Here you are not in from the start, so constant monitoring is essential even if it looks strong steady again Monday. Or just wait for the fade. See also:

Off table, I am watching PUDA for either a post non-government shutdown Monday bounce early for a long scalp on spiking up at or near the bell following their being legally investigated, or more down side on panic dumping at or near the gun on a short scalp, especially if it heads under 6 which might permit a longer hold. And UWN is a red floater that might be a fade entry if it can sport confirmed weakness cues or heavy sell pressure dumps at any point. I would keep flat on more upside oriented price action. Stalk and wait to short.

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