Wednesday, May 04, 2011

Watchers for the 5-5-11 trading session


First red day Supernovae. Finished down almost 10.5% last time, so more down side might not be realistic. If it had fallen much less than 10% then more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is more likely given the high degree of reddening on Wednesday. Down a bit A/H. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Sell price range was decent but volume was fairly modest, a mixed signal.


1st red day, Supernovae. Analysis in terms of entry/exit/play management is very similar as that for the above stock. See those comments for details. The only difference was the price range. That means more gravy down side is more probable or realistic. Closed red by less than 6.5% which is a more promising signal to watch.


New Supernovae scan return. A few days move up which closed off of the highs and lower than it opened. Volume is rising but not outstanding. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Thursday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalping long. No A/H quote.


Another new Supernovae. See my comments for the above stock, which this play heavily resembles. Entry/exit/ play management tips are mostly in common. On difference is volume is beginning to decline, which is a good sign. A Pinkie, so be careful and aware.


A big earnings surprise, with no run-up at all. Huge volume print. New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs and holds. Avoid shorts. Keep flat on enduring weakness. No A/H quote. Nice gap up B/O which propelled it into a new price range.


Call it a hunch but this former incher sported nice Bullish Engulfing today. It's a long swing on a 2 break and hold. Stop placement just under today's close will suffice, which was 1.95 to keep it within reason. No change in the A/H quote here. Not into a short, so sustained weak price action is a cash position. An early red to green long, possibly set up by a flat or nominally up/down open that weakens near the gun is an exception to that rule. I hope it starts inching again.


Volume is declining now. I suspect another 7 test fails there for a possible fade. If we dump at or near the gun in panic, or otherwise sport confirmed weakness cues, this is also a short. Also possible is a spike up early to facilitate that testing that might be long scalped. No A/H quote here. An early red to green long, possibly set up by a flat or nominally up/down open that temporarily weakens near the gun is also possible for a long which might be monitored and exited probably before lunch or even in the 1st hour. A live price action call.

A side note: LEE is oversold stock I've been following, making an appearance on my unofficial list. It finally bounced, but only A/H which may ruin a play on it tomorrow as a long. Sometimes it just goes that way. It could be in play for more bouncing as a long with care, but I am not officially saying so. Watch it, though!

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