Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Watchers for the 7-27-11 trading session


New Supernovae scan return. A 3 day move up which closed above the open at the hod. Volume increasing most days, now huge. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Wednesday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalping long. Up almost 5.5% A/H.


First red day Supernovae. Finished down almost 26% last time, so more down side might not be realistic. If it had fallen much less than 10% then more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is a lot more likely given the huge degree of reddening today. No A/H quote change. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was big, range equally imposing. Not the best signs to fade.


Another 1st red session Supernovae play, see my comment for the above stock for general tips on entry/exit/play management. An important difference here was the sell volume, which was quite small. That bodes better for shorting odds if it really weakens, as all might not be washed out yet. Big range is a negative.


New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (2.11) and holds. Avoid shorts, keep flat on true weakness. Nice move out of ascending triangle like consolidation to clearly take 2. Needs to keep above the Tuesday close, or at least above 1.85 on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise.


B/O scan. I like it long on a continuation play over the close of today, or possibly the high. Needs to stay above 4.50 on pull backs to remain viable for longs. Stops just under the close today or the 1st 30 minute low of tomorrow. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low of today is too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Medium volume on the rise today, another plus.


Another B/O scan. Analysis is quite similar to that for the above stock, with prices altered for triggers accordingly. See those comments for further details. Long above 5.16 (July 6th high) and over 5. A bit higher volume on the rise, not as ideal but adequate. The 5 test is critical, and hopefully it will be taken/held early.


Red floater scan return. Idea is to play for more, better down side on day 2. Closed negative a bit over 0.5% on Tuesday. Stop above the previous day session high (18.11-18.18) to cap losses on head fake fade entries. More conservatively, stop above the close on Tuesday if it starts off net negative. I'm only into the shorting possibility if it surfaces, keeping flat on strength. Also a short on heavy volume dumps/confirmed weakness cues. Medium level sell volume on Tuesday which means it might work out well enough. New 52's at 18.18.

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