Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Watchers for the 7-28-11 trading session


First red day Supernovae. Finished down less than 2% last time, so more down side might be realistic. If it had fallen much more than 10% then less could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is less likely given the modest degree of reddening today. No A/H quote. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was medium, range a bit more imposing. Mixed signals for new shorts.


New Supernovae scan return. A 2 day move up which closed above the open and under the hod. Volume tiny most days, now huge. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Thursday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalping long. Up a bit over 2.5% A/H. A very low float so it might not be done. If it reverses on you get out fast or risk a killer squeeze.


Potential B/O here, with a nice set-up. I like it long on a continuation play over the close/high of today. Lots of resistance at 0.42 which I hope is conquered to trigger a long. Needs to stay above 0.40 on pull backs to remain viable for longs, aside from noise candle moves. Stops just under the close today or the 1st 30 minute low of tomorrow. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low of today is too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Huge volume on the rise today, not a bonus.


A potential bottoming play here. Finished unchanged relative to the previous session close. I like it long over the close/high of today and holds. Or on spiking up at or near the bell. Or on an early red to green move. Stops under the close or the initial 30 minute low of tomorrow. The low today can be used more aggressively to manage risk and deal with noise. There's always a risk with floor calling, and that's being too early, so do not enter without the above trigger. Keep flat on more real reddening, and avoid all big gaps. OTC stock.


Parabolic Sar scan. Nice moves late, possible 2 test will be key tomorrow. If it takes it and holds, go long, with a tight stop under the trigger level. Up A/H over 2.5% to 2.01 so we could be in business. Long scalp at or near the bell on spiking up. Avoid shorts and any big gaps. Wait for it to test 2 before an ordinary long.


A rare 52 week high play that might be a possible short on a fall fail back under 16 and holds. Buy out buzz may backlash if it does not pan out or result in more PR to chew on. If if gets back over 16.50 it might have room to advance, but I am only into this one as a short if it triggers. Also short on heavy volume dumps at or near the open as a scalp. Another possibility is a spike up early, that peaks fast and trails off for a top fish fade. Usually an annual high play is long biased, but here the situation and chart give a unique angle to ponder.


Another low float stock that might provide an early spike up long scalp opportunity at or near the gun. Up almost 4% A/H. The short that might follow would require risky top timing. If it just dumps on a gap and crap it would be a scalp in the other direction. A live price action situation. Possibly going Supernovae shortly. Unless playing the ceiling fishing entry following the spike up, fade as a DT only on confirmed weakness cues.

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