Thursday, July 28, 2011

Watchers for the 7-29-11 trading session


First red day Supernovae. Finished down over 26% last time, so more down side might not be realistic. If it had fallen much less than 10% then more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is a lot more likely given the big degree of reddening today. Up about 1% A/H. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was modest, range much more imposing. Mixed signals for new shorts.


New Supernovae scan return. A 3 day move up which closed above the open and under the hod. Volume modest most days, now huge. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Friday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalping long. No A/H quote. Another somewhat low float so it might not be done. If it reverses on you get out fast or risk being short squeezed.


B/O scan. I like it long on a continuation play over the close of today, or possibly the high. Needs to stay above 1.00 on pull backs to remain viable for longs. Stops just under the close today or the 1st 30 minute low of tomorrow. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low of today is too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Medium volume on the rise today, a fair sign.


Bullish Engulfing. I like this long over the close of Thursday and also the high. Big volume on the rise, which is not a perfect sign for new buyers. Keep flat on real weakness aside from a typical red to green move, etc. Up a bit over 2% A/H. Stops typically just under the low last time or the initial 30 minute one on Friday. The low on Thursday is arguably too far away to use for risk management via stops. More conservatively a stop placed under Thursday's close, too. Must keep above 4.50 to remain viable as a long. No big gaps or shorts.


Spot situation short under 21.19 only as a trigger. Place a stop above today's high or more conservatively the close. Or above the 1st 30 minute high tomorrow. Avoid longs and any big gaps. Low volume sells, a plus.


New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (9.89) and holds. Down a tad A/H. Avoid shorts, keep flat on true weakness. Nice move to make a new annual top price on modest volume, a good sign for new buys. Needs to keep above the Thursday close or at minimum over 9 on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise.


Into the chart gap long over 1.40 and holds on strong volume. Stop just under today's close or the initial 30 minute low on Friday. The low today is too far away to use in risk control. A fall fail at the above level that does not re-enter the chart gap can be faded, too. Place a stop just above the fail level for that entry. A live price action situation. Avoid all big gaps. If it gaps a bit over 1.40 wait for a floor test and perk up to enter.

New users: Read my trading guide for my play set-ups!

Review my blog at Investimonials:

Follow me now on Twitter:

Watch my instructional trading videos on YouTube:

Subscribe to Big T by e-mail:

Subscribe to Big T in a news reader:

The blog has a terms of service. Be sure to read it at:


Anonymous said...

nice long PEIX :/

Big T said...

It did not work out, in fact.

It was, however a good technical set-up. You cannot control the market, only how you react to it.

Since PEIX gapped down, well down, no trigger even remotely occurred, so no fake out happened, and unless a trader bought blindly at the bell or (if applicable) bought in premarket, they did not make or lose money. It was a no play.

Following rules, not emotion, prevents many bad trades from even being entered. Sometimes you can follow rules and lose anyway, but often you can avoid clunkers.

A good place to start is reading my tips for new readers: