Sunday, September 18, 2011

Watchers for the 9-19-11 trading session


New Supernovae scan return. A few day move up which closed above the open and under the hod. Volume modest most days, now huge. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Monday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalping long. Unclear catalyst.


First red day Supernovae. Finished down less than 6% last time, so more down side might be realistic. If it had fallen much more than 10% then less could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is modestly likely given the average degree of reddening Friday. No A/H quote. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was modest, range likewise. Fair signals for new shorts.


The jig is up on this one, but it might see a bit more red gravy Monday. Scamex stock with some hyping is up A/H but on confirmed weakness cues or morning panic style dumps at any time it's a fade entry. An early gap and crap or green to red and holds would fill the bill nicely. No longs, get out on reversals respecting stops.


Red floater scan return. Idea is to play for more, better down side on day 2. Closed below the open down 1.5%+ on Friday. 8 previous days up until last time. Stop above Thursday's session high (8.42) to cap losses on head fake fade entries. More conservatively, stop above the close on Friday if it starts off net negative. I'm only into the shorting possibility if it surfaces, keeping flat on strength. Also a short on heavy volume dumps/confirmed weakness cues. Low level sell volume Friday which is optimum for fades. Respect stops.


Bullish Engulfing. I like this long over the close of Friday and also the high. Low volume on the rise, which is a good sign for new buyers. Keep flat on real weakness aside from a typical red to green move, etc. No A/H quote. Stops just under the low last time or the initial 30 minute one on Monday. More conservatively a stop placed under Friday's close, too. The low on that day is probably too far away to use for risk control via stops. Must keep above 14.00 to remain viable as a long. Avoid all big gaps or shorts.


B/O scan. I like it long on a continuation play above the close or high of Friday. Needs to stay above 5.00 on pull backs to remain viable for longs. Stops also possible just under the close on Friday or the 1st 30 minute low of Monday. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low on Friday is too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Modest volume on the rise, a decent sign for new buys. No A/H quote. I would be inclined to let it test and hold 5 before entering unless it's strong early.


A very interesting chart with close feedback points. It's in play long as a typical 52 week B/O if it can take and hold 15.30+ so see my comments for ELGX last time if it does that. It's also in play short on a fail there if tested, or a move back under and holds if it goes over early or gaps above modestly. Avoid all big gaps. A live price action situation with nice potential given the huge price correction with resistance at the above level.

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