Monday, October 17, 2011

Watchers for the 10-18-11 trading session


New Supernovae scan return. A 1 day move up which closed above the open and under the hod. Volume nominal most all days, huge today. Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though. Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to red on Tuesday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues or heavy dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into. Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print, if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price action, avoid scalping long. Merger news.


Now this is really extended. See my previous comments, mostly still applicable. Shorts were not likely faked out due to how the price action proceeded on today's big up day. Confirmed weakness cues or morning panic like dumps or early green to red moves are shorts. Place a tight stop and honor it. Up about 1% A/H.


New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (2.96) and holds. Nice daily chart with consolidation escape. Volume substantial today, a poor sign for new buys. Float small, thus short squeeze prone. This one is in play both ways, long over 3/holds and short on a fall back under/holds. If it opens over 3 and tests/perks it might be bought, if it soon fails below from above it might be sold on profit taking over extension. Avoid all big gaps. Do not hold a long under 2.75 on reversal.


Red floater scan return. Idea is to play for more, better down side on day 2. Closed down on Monday a bit less than 1% Stop above the previous day session high (5.89) to cap losses on head fake fade entries. More conservatively, stop above the close on Monday if it starts off net negative. I'm only into the shorting possibility if it surfaces, keeping flat on strength. Also a short on heavy volume dumps/confirmed weakness cues. Big level sell volume on Monday, a poor sign for new sellers. New 52's at 6. Stops just over, honor it.


Bearish Engulfing. I like it short below the close or low of Monday. Low volume on the drop, which is a fair sign for new sellers. Keep flat on real strength aside from a typical green to red move, etc. No A/H quote. Stops just above the high last time or the initial 30 minute one on Tuesday. More conservatively a stop placed above Monday's close, too. The high on that day is arguably not too far away to use for risk control via stops. Must keep under 2ish (solid resistance) on any pull ups to remain viable as a short. Avoid all big gaps/longs.


An oldie but goodie former runner with a low float prone to squeezing that I hope to scalp long at or near the bell next session if it spikes up. Or on a weak open, a sprightly red to green move buy. No shorts, keep flat on real weakness. A move back up to test 3.50+ would not be surprising. No A/H quote, avoid all big gaps.


I like this long above 4.47 on a continuation of momentum. If it gets over 4.50 and holds it might really get going on a B/O. No shorts, avoid all big gaps. Medium volume on the rise, a fair sign for new longs. Possible early red to green long buy, given its nominal retreat A/H. Also a long scalp on spiking up at or near the gun.

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