Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Watchers for the 10-19-11 trading session


See my previous comments. Still applicable. Clearly this is so over done by now the fall is coming soon. Possibly at 1.50? Biggest volume yet. Basically 11 straight up or at least equal closes! Fade on confirmed weakness cues and morning panic dumps at any time. Honor stops, avoid longs and big gaps, using the previous session high or initial 30 minute high tomorrow as bail out points if it draws you in the other direction. Down almost 3% A/H so watch for a failed red to green move first before jumping in if it advanced on open.


First red day Supernovae. Finished down almost 8.5% last time, off a gap up, so more down side might be possible. If it had fallen much more than 10% then less could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is somewhat likely given the fairly red result of Tuesday. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was medium, range more imposing too. Mixed signals for new shorts.


Bullish Engulfing. I like this long over 5.75 ideally or above the close today. Modest volume on the rise, which is a fair sign for new buyers. Keep flat on real weakness aside from a typical red to green move, etc. Stops just under the low last time or the initial 30 minute one on Wednesday. More conservatively a stop placed under Tuesday's close, too. The low on that day is probably not too far away to use for risk management via stops. Must keep above 5.40 to remain viable as a long. No big gaps or shorts. No A/H quote.


New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (4.22) and holds. No A/H quote. Avoid shorts, keep flat on true weakness. Nice daily chart with big momentum. Volume huge today, a suspect sign for new buys. Float a bit light. Needs to keep above the Tuesday close or at minimum over 4 on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise.


I like this long on a break above 8 if it maintains/perks up off there. Possible early red to green long off weak open. Avoid shorts, keeping flat on weak price action. Avoid all big gaps. Also long on a spike up at or near the bell as a scalp.Needs to keep above 7.50 on any retrace aside from early noise to remain viable for buys.


I like this long over 7 (into a chart gap) and holds. Strong volume today, not a big plus for new buys. Avoid shorts and all big gaps. Needs to keep over 6.75 on retraces to remain in contention for longs. Also long on spiking up at or near the bell for a scalp. Has traded in a range, nearing the top of it with resistance at 7ish. No A/H quote. Anticipating B/O's like this with a receptive chart set up as here can be very profitable.


In play both ways, long on a test and hold of 2 as new support with past resistance right at that level. Ideally, this opens flat or nominally up and tests/perks off 2 to enter. Or on a slightly weak open if it busts over 2 and holds after the noise candle it is a buy. Immediate spike ups can be scalp bought. I prefer the short though on a fall fail of the same level, or scalping profit taking on panic dumps at or near the gun. Given so much volume today and a rise of nearly 45% it would not be a surprise if it sells off at 2 at once. It might open a bit down and meet a ceiling at 2 or open flat or just over and drop under to fade. Avoid all huge gaps. Low float, so use a tight stop on shorts near 2 and honor it on a reversal. A chart with dual options and close feedback.

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