Thursday, October 27, 2011

Watchers for the 10-28-11 trading session


First red day Supernovae. Finished down almost 17.5% last time, so more down side might not be realistic. If it had fallen much less than 10% then more could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early. This is fairly likely given the big red result of Thursday. No A/H quote change. Avoid entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse. Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level. Avoid spike up long scalps, too. Selling volume was large, range too. Not optimum signals for new shorts.


Great moves the past 4 days. The moment of truth is at hand. This is a long with constant monitoring up to about 2, on inching up or spiking up at or near the gun. See my previous analysis. But it's very possible 2 will be the dump point to fade off a fail to punch over and hold, or a fast move over and back under, etc. Avoid all big gaps. Obviously, it could take and hold 2, and keep going a few more days. In that case, new monitored longs will have to be considered, but I suspect a nice short is coming soon, especially at near 2.


Bullish Engulfing. I like this long over the high of Thursday. Huge volume on the rise, which is a poor sign for new buyers. Keep flat on real weakness aside from a typical red to green move, etc. Stops just under the low last time or the initial 30 minute one on Friday. More conservatively a stop placed under Thursday's close, too. The low on that day is not too far away to use for risk management via stops. Must keep above 16.50 on pull backs to remain viable as a long. Ideally, it remains over 16.75. No big gaps/shorts. No A/H quote.


New 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks usually go higher. Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a break above to new yearly highs (11.35) and holds. Avoid shorts, keep flat on true weakness. Nice daily chart price correction move above 11. Volume large today, a poor sign for new buys. Needs to keep above the Thursday close or at least over 11 on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside from any early noise. No A/H quote change.


Red floater scan return. Idea is to play for more, better down side on day 2. Closed up on Thursday a bit more than 4% but below the open via a gapper. Stop above the previous day session high (6.77) to cap losses on head fake fade entries. More conservatively, stop above the close on Thursday if it starts off net negative. I'm only into the shorting possibility if it surfaces, keeping flat on strength. Also a short on heavy volume dumps/confirmed weakness cues. Medium sell volume on Thursday which means it might work out well enough. 6.50 fail would be ideal, it held today. If it goes it might have bit more still for shorts. A DT only.


Bearish Engulfing. I like it short below the low of Thursday. Modest volume on the drop, which is a fair sign for new sellers. Keep flat on real strength aside from a typical green to red move, etc. Stops just above the high last time or the initial 30 minute one on Friday. More conservatively a stop placed above Thursday's close, too. The high on that day is not too far away to use for risk control via stops. Must keep under 1.80 on any pull ups to remain viable as a short. Avoid all big gaps/longs. A fail under 1.60 is ideal.


B/O scan. I like it long above 2. Ideal to stay over that on tests aside from early noise if it triggers. Stops also possible just under the close on Thursday or the 1st 30 minute low of Friday. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low on Thursday is too far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp. Medium volume on the rise, a neutral sign for new buys. No A/H quote change.

Off table, CBHDF may be getting a bit overdone. It's had some moves north fueled by a mining mogul buy/ possible promotion hues. I like it short on confirmed weakness cues/panic dumps. Day Trade (DT) play only.

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